Welcome  

I am an assistant professor in the Economics Department at the University of Oslo. My research interests include topics in international trade, international finance, and migration.

Contact Details

  • Visiting address: Eilert Sundts Hus Block B, Moltke Moes vei 31, 0851 Oslo
  • Postal address: Postboks 1095 Blindern, 0317 Oslo
  • Email inga.heiland at econ.uio.no

CV


Research in progress  

Global Risk Sharing Through Trade in Goods and Assets: Theory and Evidence

Firms facing uncertain demand at the time of production expose their shareholders to volatile returns. Risk-averse investors trading multiple assets will favor stocks that tend to yield high returns in bad times, that is, when the marginal utility of consumption is high. In this paper, I develop a firm-level gravity model of trade with risk-averse investors to show that firms seeking to maximize their present value will take into account that shareholders discount expected profits depending on the correlation with their expected marginal utility of consumption. The model predicts that, ceteris paribus, firms sell more to markets where profits covary less with the income of their investors. This holds true even in the presence of complete and internationally integrated financial markets. To test the model's prediction, I use data on stock returns to estimate covariances between demand growth in export markets and expected marginal utility growth of investors in 21 countries. I then show that the covariance pattern is reflected in the pattern of these countries' exports across destination markets and time within narrowly defined product-level categories, as predicted by the model. I conclude that by maximizing shareholder value, exporters are actively engaged in global risk sharing. [PDF]

Trade From Space: Shipping Networks and The Global Implications of Local Shocks, with A. Moxnes, K. H. Ulltveit-Moe, and Y. Zi

Container ships are the engines of global trade. In this paper, we use satellite data revealing the worldwide movements of all container ships to calculate the optimal travel routes of containerized goods. Few countries have direct shipping connections to their trade partners. An implication is that trade between two countries is determined by trade costs to and from third countries. We estimate the impact of local shocks to the shipping network on global trade by means of a natural experiment: the Panama Canal expansion in 2016. Based on a difference-in-difference estimation, we find that the trade between country pairs whose fastest shipping routes passes through the Panama Canal increased by 9-10% after the expansion. We quantify the trade and welfare effects of the shock using a canonical Ricardian model of trade. The expansion increased world real income by USD 20 billion, and the gains per capita were concentrated among Central American countries which use the canal intensively. The results highlight the importance of trade networks for the quantification of the gains from trade. [PDF]


Heterogeneous Workers, Trade, and Migration, with W. Kohler

We analyze the welfare effects of trade and migration, focusing on two-sided horizontal heterogeneity among workers and firms. We prove the existence of a unique symmetric equilibrium in a two stage game of firm entry (including choice of skill-types) and pricing, involving monopsony power on the labor market and endogenous goods price markups. Trade increases wage markups and worsens the average quality worker-firm matches as well as raising within-firm wage inequality. In contrast, migration lowers wage markups and tends to improve the average matching quality. Our model advocates opening up labor markets simultaneously with trade liberalization. [CESifo Working Paper No. 7355, 2018] under review


Export Market Risk and the Role of State Credit Guarantees, with E. Yalcin [CESifo Working Paper No. 5176, 2015] under review


Undoing Europe in a New Quantitative Trade Model, with G. Felbermayr and J. Groeschl [ifo Working Paper No. 250, 2018]


Going Deep: The Trade and Welfare Effects of TTIP Revised, with R. Aichele and G. Felbermayr [ifo Working Paper No. 219, 2016] This paper updates the results presented in Going Deep: The Trade and Welfare Effects of TTIP. [CESifo Working Paper No. 5150, 2014]


Mitigating Liquidity Constraints: Public Export Credit Guarantees in Germany, with G. Felbermayr and E. Yalcin [CESifo Working Paper No. 3908, 2012] R&R Review of International Economics.


Publications in academic journals  

Where is the Value Added? Trade Liberalization and Production Networks, with R. Aichele Journal of International Economics, 115, 2018, 130-144. [Preprint][Online appendix] [Data and code]


TTIP and Intra-European Trade: Boon or Bane?, with R. Aichele and G. Felbermayr

Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik / Journal of Economics and Statistics, 236(6), 2016, 639–664. [ifo Working Paper No. 220, 2016]


Books  

Five Essays on International Trade, Factor Flows, and the Gains from Globalization

ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung 74, ifo Institute, 2017. [PDF]


Policy pieces  

Die (Handels-)Kosten einer Nicht-EU with R. Aichele, G. Felbermayr, J. Stehn
[Kiel Policy Briefs, 125, 2019]


EEG und internationaler Wettbewerb: Ist die besondere Ausgleichsregelung haltbar?, with R. Aichele, G. Felbermayr [ifo Schnelldienst 67(02), 2014]


The Role of State Export Credit Guarantees for German Firms, with G. Felbermayr, E. Yalcin [CESifo Forum 15(3), 2014]


Der Wertschöpfungsgehalt des Aussenhandels: Neue Daten, neue Perspektiven with R. Aichele, G. Felbermayr [ifo Schnelldienst 66(05), 2013]


Neues von der Basarökonomie with R. Aichele, G. Felbermayr [ifo Schnelldienst 66(06), 2013]


Beschäftigungseffekte der Exportkreditgarantien der Bundesrepublik Deutschland ("Hermesdeckungen") with G. Felbermayr, E. Yalcin [ifo Schnelldienst 65(01), 2012]