Welcome  

I am an assistant professor in the Economics Department at the University of Oslo and a researcher at Statistics Norway. My research interests include topics in international trade, international finance, and migration.

Contact Details

  • Visiting address: Eilert Sundts Hus Block B, Moltke Moes vei 31, 0851 Oslo
  • Postal address: Postboks 1095 Blindern, 0317 Oslo
  • Email inga.heiland at econ.uio.no

CV


Latest writings  

  • August 2020: Complex Europe: Quantifying the Cost of Disintegration, with G. Felbermayr and J. Groeschl [VoxEU][CEPR Discussion Paper No. 15200]
  • May 2020: An unintended crisis: COVID-19 restrictions hit sea transportation, with K.H. Ulltveit-Moe [VoxEU]
  • May 2020: An unintended crisis in sea transportation due to COVID-19 restrictions, with K.H. Ulltveit-Moe, in Baldwin, R. E. and S. J. Evenett (eds), COVID-19 and Trade Policy: Why Turning Inward Won’t Work, a VoxEU.org eBook, CEPR Press, 2020. [Link to eBook]


Research in progress  

Global Risk Sharing Through Trade in Goods and Assets: Theory and Evidence

Exporting not only provides firms with profit opportunities, but can also provide for risk diversification if is demand is stochastic and shocks are imperfectly correlated across countries. I develop a general equilibrium trade model, with risk-averse investors and complete asset markets, to show that the correlation pattern of demand shocks across countries constitutes a hitherto unexplored source of comparative advantage that shapes trade flows and persists even if financial markets are complete. The model yields a risk-augmented gravity equation, predicting that, conditional on trade costs and market size, exporters sell smaller quantities to countries whose shocks contribute more to aggregate volatility. I estimate the risk-augmented gravity equation using thirty years of data on trade flows and find support for the model's prediction. A counterfactual experiment shows that demand-risk-based comparative advantage accounts for 4.6\% of global trade. Country-level exports would grow by -13% to +10% if all diversification opportunities were eliminated, entailing welfare losses in the range of .4% to 16%. [CEPR Discussion Paper No. 14230] [Latest version] under Review.


Trade From Space: Shipping Networks and The Global Implications of Local Shocks, with A. Moxnes, K. H. Ulltveit-Moe, and Y. Zi

This paper examines the structure of the shipping network and its implications on global trade and welfare. Using novel data on the movements of container ships, we calculate optimal travel routes. We then estimate the impact of a shock to the network on global trade by means of a natural experiment: the 2016 Panama Canal expansion. Trade between country pairs using the canal increased by 9-10% after the expansion. While the building costs were borne by Panama alone, a model-based quantification shows that the welfare gains were shared by many countries, due to the network structure of shipping. [VoxEU][CEPR Discussion Paper No. 14193][PDF] Revision requested by The AER.


Heterogeneous Workers, Trade, and Migration, with W. Kohler

We analyze the welfare effects of trade and migration, focusing on two-sided horizontal heterogeneity among workers and firms. We prove the existence of a unique symmetric equilibrium in a two stage game of firm entry (including choice of skill-types) and pricing, involving monopsony power on the labor market and endogenous goods price markups. Trade increases wage markups and worsens the average quality worker-firm matches as well as raising within-firm wage inequality. In contrast, migration lowers wage markups and tends to improve the average matching quality. Our model advocates opening up labor markets simultaneously with trade liberalization. [CESifo Working Paper No. 7355, 2018] under Review.


Complex Europe: Quantifying the Cost of Disintegration, with G. Felbermayr and J. Groeschl [VoxEU][CEPR Discussion Paper 15200, 2020][PDF] under Review.
This paper updates the results presented in Undoing Europe in a New Quantitative Trade Model. [ifo Working Paper No. 250, 2018]


Going Deep: The Trade and Welfare Effects of TTIP Revised, with R. Aichele and G. Felbermayr [ifo Working Paper No. 219, 2016] This paper updates the results presented in Going Deep: The Trade and Welfare Effects of TTIP. [CESifo Working Paper No. 5150, 2014]


Mitigating Liquidity Constraints: Public Export Credit Guarantees in Germany, with G. Felbermayr and E. Yalcin [CESifo Working Paper No. 3908, 2012]


Publications in academic journals  

Where is the Value Added? Trade Liberalization and Production Networks, with R. Aichele Journal of International Economics, 115, 2018, 130-144. [Preprint][Online appendix] [Data and code]


TTIP and Intra-European Trade: Boon or Bane?, with R. Aichele and G. Felbermayr

Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik / Journal of Economics and Statistics, 236(6), 2016, 639–664. [ifo Working Paper No. 220, 2016]


Export Market Risk and the Role of State Credit Guarantees, with E. Yalcin

International Economics and Economic Policy, forthcoming. [CESifo Working Paper No. 5176, 2015]


Books & Chapters  

An unintended crisis in sea transportation due to COVID-19 restrictions, with K.H. Ulltveit-Moe

in Baldwin, R. E. and S. J. Evenett (eds), COVID-19 and Trade Policy: Why Turning Inward Won’t Work, a VoxEU.org eBook, CEPR Press, 2020. [Link]


Five Essays on International Trade, Factor Flows, and the Gains from Globalization

ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung 74, ifo Institute, 2017. [PDF]


Policy pieces  

Die (Handels-)Kosten einer Nicht-EU with G. Felbermayr, J. Groeschl, J. Stehn
[Kiel Policy Briefs, 125, 2019]


EEG und internationaler Wettbewerb: Ist die besondere Ausgleichsregelung haltbar?, with R. Aichele, G. Felbermayr [ifo Schnelldienst 67(02), 2014]


The Role of State Export Credit Guarantees for German Firms, with G. Felbermayr, E. Yalcin [CESifo Forum 15(3), 2014]


Der Wertschöpfungsgehalt des Aussenhandels: Neue Daten, neue Perspektiven with R. Aichele, G. Felbermayr [ifo Schnelldienst 66(05), 2013]


Neues von der Basarökonomie with R. Aichele, G. Felbermayr [ifo Schnelldienst 66(06), 2013]


Beschäftigungseffekte der Exportkreditgarantien der Bundesrepublik Deutschland ("Hermesdeckungen") with G. Felbermayr, E. Yalcin [ifo Schnelldienst 65(01), 2012]