I am an economist at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and the CAU Kiel. I am also associated with the Economics Department at the University of Oslo. Previously, I worked for the Macroeconomics Group at Statistics Norway. My research interests include topics in international trade, international investment, migration, and economic networks and I am the head of the Research Center for Trade Policy at the Kiel Institute and associate editor for the Review of World Economics.
I develop a general equilibrium trade model, with risk-averse investors and international capital flows, to show that the correlation pattern of demand shocks across countries constitutes a motive for goods trade that persists even if financial markets are complete. I estimate the risk-augmented gravity equation implied by the model and find support for the prediction that, conditional on trade costs and market size, exporters sell smaller quantities to countries whose shocks contribute more to aggregate volatility. A counterfactual analysis shows that the risk-diversification motive accounts for 7.5% of global trade. Country-level exports would grow by -19% to +9% if all diversification opportunities were eliminated, entailing welfare losses in the range of .3% to 16%.
[CEPR Discussion Paper No. 14230] [Latest version]
Reject&Resubmit Journal of International Economics.
This paper analyzes international externalities of a local shock to the global ship- ping network. The 2016 Panama Canal expansion removed a bottleneck in seaborne transportation, allowing much larger ships to pass. Using both reduced-form and structural methods in combination with novel satellite data on the movements of container ships, we find that trade increased significantly among country-pairs us- ing the canal. We find that the global real income gains from the canal expansion were over three times greater than the income gains for Panama itself. A link re- moval analysis reveals that most shipping links are associated with positive and quantitatively important positive international externalities. [VoxEU][CEPR Discussion Paper No. 14193][Latest version]
International Economics and Economic Policy, 25–72(2021). [CESifo Working Paper No. 5176, 2015]
Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik / Journal of Economics and Statistics, 236(6), 2016, 639–664. [ifo Working Paper No. 220, 2016]
in Baldwin, R. E. and S. J. Evenett (eds), Revitalising Multilateralism: Pragmatic Ideas for the New WTO Director-General, a VoxEU.org eBook, CEPR Press, 2020. [Link]
ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung 74, ifo Institute, 2017. [PDF]