Welcome
I am an assistant professor in the Economics Department at the University of Oslo and a researcher in the Macroeconomics Group at Statistics Norway. My research interests include topics in international macro, trade, finance, and migration.
Contact Details
- Visiting address: Eilert Sundts Hus Block B, Moltke Moes vei 31, 0851 Oslo
- Postal address: Postboks 1095 Blindern, 0317 Oslo
- Email inga.heiland at econ.uio.no
CV
- Visit my profile at UiO
- and my RePEc / Google Scholar / VoxEU page
Latest writings
- November 2020: Cumulative COVID-19 restrictions and the global maritime network, with K.H. Ulltveit-Moe, in Baldwin, R. E. and S. J. Evenett (eds), Revitalising Multilateralism: Pragmatic Ideas for the New WTO Director-General, a VoxEU.org eBook, CEPR Press, 2020. [Link to eBook]
- August 2020: Complex Europe: Quantifying the Cost of Disintegration, with G. Felbermayr and J. Groeschl [VoxEU][CEPR Discussion Paper No. 15200]
- May 2020: An unintended crisis: COVID-19 restrictions hit sea transportation, with K.H. Ulltveit-Moe. [VoxEU] Media coverage: [Finansavisen.no]
Research in progress
Global Risk Sharing Through Trade in Goods and Assets: Theory and Evidence
Exporting not only provides firms with profit opportunities, but can also provide for risk diversification if is demand is stochastic and shocks are imperfectly correlated across countries. I develop a general equilibrium trade model, with risk-averse investors and complete asset markets, to show that the correlation pattern of demand shocks across countries constitutes a hitherto unexplored source of comparative advantage that shapes trade flows and persists even if financial markets are complete. The model yields a risk-augmented gravity equation, predicting that, conditional on trade costs and market size, exporters sell smaller quantities to countries whose shocks contribute more to aggregate volatility. I estimate the risk-augmented gravity equation using thirty years of data on trade flows and find support for the model's prediction. A counterfactual experiment shows that demand-risk-based comparative advantage accounts for 4.6% of global trade. Country-level exports would grow by -13% to +10% if all diversification opportunities were eliminated, entailing welfare losses in the range of .4% to 16%. [CEPR Discussion Paper No. 14230] [Latest version] under review.
Trade From Space: Shipping Networks and The Global Implications of Local Shocks, with A. Moxnes, K. H. Ulltveit-Moe, and Y. Zi
This paper examines the structure of the shipping network and its implications on global trade and welfare. Using novel data on the movements of container ships, we calculate optimal travel routes. We then estimate the impact of a shock to the network on global trade by means of a natural experiment: the 2016 Panama Canal expansion. Trade between country pairs using the canal increased by 9-10% after the expansion. While the building costs were borne by Panama alone, a model-based quantification shows that the welfare gains were shared by many countries, due to the network structure of shipping. [VoxEU][CEPR Discussion Paper No. 14193][PDF] Reject&Resubmit at The AER.
Complex Europe: Quantifying the Cost of Disintegration, with G. Felbermayr and J. Groeschl
[VoxEU][CEPR Discussion Paper 15200, 2020][PDF]
Revise&Resubmit at The JIE.
This paper updates the results presented in Undoing Europe in a New Quantitative Trade Model.
[ifo Working Paper No. 250, 2018]
Heterogeneous Workers, Trade, and Migration, with W. Kohler
[CESifo Working Paper No. 7355, 2018]
Going Deep: The Trade and Welfare Effects of TTIP Revised, with R. Aichele and G. Felbermayr [ifo Working Paper No. 219, 2016] This paper updates the results presented in Going Deep: The Trade and Welfare Effects of TTIP. [CESifo Working Paper No. 5150, 2014]
Mitigating Liquidity Constraints: Public Export Credit Guarantees in Germany, with G. Felbermayr and E. Yalcin [CESifo Working Paper No. 3908, 2012]
Publications in academic journals
Where is the Value Added? Trade Liberalization and Production Networks, with R. Aichele Journal of International Economics, 115, 2018, 130-144. [Preprint][Online appendix] [Data and code]
TTIP and Intra-European Trade: Boon or Bane?, with R. Aichele and G. Felbermayr
Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik / Journal of Economics and Statistics, 236(6), 2016, 639–664. [ifo Working Paper No. 220, 2016]
Export Market Risk and the Role of State Credit Guarantees, with E. Yalcin
International Economics and Economic Policy (2020). [CESifo Working Paper No. 5176, 2015]
Books & Chapters
Cumulative COVID-19 restrictions and the global maritime network, with K.H. Ulltveit-Moe
in Baldwin, R. E. and S. J. Evenett (eds), Revitalising Multilateralism: Pragmatic Ideas for the New WTO Director-General, a VoxEU.org eBook, CEPR Press, 2020. [Link]
An unintended crisis in sea transportation due to COVID-19 restrictions, with K.H. Ulltveit-Moe
in Baldwin, R. E. and S. J. Evenett (eds), COVID-19 and Trade Policy: Why Turning Inward Won’t Work, a VoxEU.org eBook, CEPR Press, 2020. [Link]
Five Essays on International Trade, Factor Flows, and the Gains from Globalization
ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung 74, ifo Institute, 2017. [PDF]
