Welcome  

I am a researcher in the Economics Department at the University of Oslo and a researcher in the Macroeconomics Group at Statistics Norway. My research interests include topics in international trade, international investment, migration, and economic networks.

Contact Details

  • Visiting address: Eilert Sundts Hus Block B, Moltke Moes vei 31, 0851 Oslo
  • Postal address: Postboks 1095 Blindern, 0317 Oslo
  • Email inga.heiland at econ.uio.no

CV


Latest writings  

  • November 2020: Cumulative COVID-19 restrictions and the global maritime network, with K.H. Ulltveit-Moe, in Baldwin, R. E. and S. J. Evenett (eds), Revitalising Multilateralism: Pragmatic Ideas for the New WTO Director-General, a VoxEU.org eBook, CEPR Press, 2020. [Link to eBook]
  • August 2020: Complex Europe: Quantifying the Cost of Disintegration, with G. Felbermayr and J. Groeschl [VoxEU][CEPR Discussion Paper No. 15200]
  • May 2020: An unintended crisis: COVID-19 restrictions hit sea transportation, with K.H. Ulltveit-Moe. [VoxEU] Media coverage: [Finansavisen.no]


Research in progress  

Global Risk Sharing Through Trade in Goods and Assets: Theory and Evidence

I develop a general equilibrium trade model, with risk-averse investors and international capital flows, to show that the correlation pattern of demand shocks across countries constitutes a motive for goods trade that persists even if financial markets are complete. I estimate the risk-augmented gravity equation implied by the model and find support for the prediction that, conditional on trade costs and market size, exporters sell smaller quantities to countries whose shocks contribute more to aggregate volatility. A counterfactual analysis shows that the risk-diversification motive accounts for 7.5% of global trade. Country-level exports would grow by -19% to +9% if all diversification opportunities were eliminated, entailing welfare losses in the range of .3% to 16%. [CEPR Discussion Paper No. 14230] [Latest version] Under review.


Trade From Space: Shipping Networks and The Global Implications of Local Shocks, with A. Moxnes, K. H. Ulltveit-Moe, and Y. Zi

This paper examines the structure of the shipping network and its implications on global trade and welfare. Using novel data on the movements of container ships, we calculate optimal travel routes. We then estimate the impact of a shock to the network on global trade by means of a natural experiment: the 2016 Panama Canal expansion. Trade between country pairs using the canal increased by 9-10% after the expansion. While the building costs were borne by Panama alone, a model-based quantification shows that the welfare gains were shared by many countries, due to the network structure of shipping. [VoxEU][CEPR Discussion Paper No. 14193][Latest version] Reject&Resubmit American Economic Review.


Complex Europe: Quantifying the Cost of Disintegration, with G. Felbermayr and J. Groeschl [VoxEU][CEPR Discussion Paper 15200, 2020][PDF]
R&R Journal of International Economics.
This paper updates the results presented in Undoing Europe in a New Quantitative Trade Model [ifo Working Paper No. 250, 2018.]


Heterogeneous Workers, Trade, and Migration, with W. Kohler

[CESifo Working Paper No. 7355, 2018][Latest version]
R&R European Economic Review.


Frictions to Intranational Investment, with J. Hinz


Markups and Startups in Ownership Networks



Publications in academic journals  

Where is the Value Added? Trade Liberalization and Production Networks, with R. Aichele Journal of International Economics, 115, 2018, 130-144. [Preprint][Online appendix] [Data and code]


TTIP and Intra-European Trade: Boon or Bane?, with R. Aichele and G. Felbermayr

Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik / Journal of Economics and Statistics, 236(6), 2016, 639–664. [ifo Working Paper No. 220, 2016]


Export Market Risk and the Role of State Credit Guarantees, with E. Yalcin

International Economics and Economic Policy, 25–72(2021). [CESifo Working Paper No. 5176, 2015]


Books & Chapters  

Cumulative COVID-19 restrictions and the global maritime network, with K.H. Ulltveit-Moe

in Baldwin, R. E. and S. J. Evenett (eds), Revitalising Multilateralism: Pragmatic Ideas for the New WTO Director-General, a VoxEU.org eBook, CEPR Press, 2020. [Link]


An unintended crisis in sea transportation due to COVID-19 restrictions, with K.H. Ulltveit-Moe

in Baldwin, R. E. and S. J. Evenett (eds), COVID-19 and Trade Policy: Why Turning Inward Won’t Work, a VoxEU.org eBook, CEPR Press, 2020. [Link]


Five Essays on International Trade, Factor Flows, and the Gains from Globalization

ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung 74, ifo Institute, 2017. [PDF]


Policy pieces  

Die (Handels-)Kosten einer Nicht-EU with G. Felbermayr, J. Groeschl, J. Stehn
[Kiel Policy Briefs, 125, 2019]


Going Deep: The Trade and Welfare Effects of TTIP Revised, with R. Aichele and G. Felbermayr [ifo Working Paper No. 219, 2016] This paper updates the results presented in Going Deep: The Trade and Welfare Effects of TTIP. [CESifo Working Paper No. 5150, 2014]


EEG und internationaler Wettbewerb: Ist die besondere Ausgleichsregelung haltbar?, with R. Aichele, G. Felbermayr [ifo Schnelldienst 67(02), 2014]


The Role of State Export Credit Guarantees for German Firms, with G. Felbermayr, E. Yalcin [CESifo Forum 15(3), 2014]


Der Wertschöpfungsgehalt des Aussenhandels: Neue Daten, neue Perspektiven with R. Aichele, G. Felbermayr [ifo Schnelldienst 66(05), 2013]


Neues von der Basarökonomie with R. Aichele, G. Felbermayr [ifo Schnelldienst 66(06), 2013]


Mitigating Liquidity Constraints: Public Export Credit Guarantees in Germany, with G. Felbermayr and E. Yalcin [CESifo Working Paper No. 3908, 2012]


Beschäftigungseffekte der Exportkreditgarantien der Bundesrepublik Deutschland ("Hermesdeckungen") with G. Felbermayr, E. Yalcin [ifo Schnelldienst 65(01), 2012]